How many points do third-placed teams need to advance?
With the 2026 World Cup expanded to 48 teams across 12 groups, the eight best third-placed sides will advance to the last 16 — and the race for those spots is heating up ahead of the final round of group games.
According to Opta's supercomputer, teams with three points have a 66.77% chance of advancing, making a win essentially the benchmark. Two points could theoretically be enough in one very unlikely scenario, but no team will advance with just one point.
Some third-placed sides are in a much stronger position than others. The third-placed team in Group L — England's group — has a 96.7% chance of advancing, while Group C's third side sits at 84%. At the other end, the third-placed team in Group E stands at just 26.6%, with Group H's third side at 34.7%.
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